One of the things the Democratic candidates seemed to agree on in the run-up to the South Carolina primary was that John McCain is the likely Republican nominee. It seems the seventy-one-year-old straight talker has more than resurrected his candidacy from the media-created grave it lay in just a few short months ago.

If the Republican party can mobilize its epic organizational prowess behind him, McCain may be unstoppable, despite the swamp of the Republican Bush legacy and the historic nature of the candidacies of the Democratic front-runners.

The key lies in how well he can continue to draw support from moderate Republicans, undecided centrists, and even confused Democratic fence-sitters.

Consider the following breakdown of the New Hampshire primary based on the results of an Associated Press exit poll:

Romney edged out McCain among the half of Republican primary voters who called themselves conservative, but McCain won more handily among moderates and the roughly 10 percent who were self-described liberals…

“Registered independents, who could choose between the two parties’ primaries, had been seen as a key to victory in both races in New Hampshire, but they were more of a factor on the Republican side… A third of Republican primary voters called themselves independent, and McCain easily outpaced Romney among them. “

McCain’s immigration bill, which almost doomed his campaign in the early running because the Republican field as a whole had moved so far to the Tancredo side of the issue, spouting repulsion for the “blanket amnesty” the bill supposedly conferred, actually appealed to middle-of-the-road voters and lawmakers. He is likewise the only Republican candidate who has expressed any sort of progressive opinions on climate change and the need for a cap-and-trade system to offset carbon emissions as well as to stimulate the economy. Check out Grist.com’s fact-sheet on McCain for proof of his party-ruffling positions on the environment. His opposition to Bush Administration treatment of prisoners in the War on Terror and his call to genuinely ban torture, as well as his insistence on campaign finance reform are also documented in a recent New York Times op-ed.

But don’t be fooled. Rarely does one hear McCain mention his pro-life stance, especially since the primaries have heated up— a brilliant possum strategy unimaginable from the other candidates. Even more perplexing is McCain’s appeal to voters who oppose the war in Iraq, a fact again revealed by the Associated Press exit polls. Consider this snippet from McCain’s own website concerning his position on Iraq:

A greater military commitment now is necessary if we are to achieve long-term success in Iraq. John McCain agrees with retired Army General Jack Keane that there are simply not enough American forces in Iraq. More troops are necessary to clear and hold insurgent strongholds; to provide security for rebuilding local institutions and economies; to halt sectarian violence in Baghdad and disarm Sunni and Shia militias; to dismantle al Qaeda; to train the Iraqi Army; and to embed American personnel in Iraqi police units. Accomplishing each of these goals will require more troops and is a crucial prerequisite for needed economic and political development in the country.

That is the first paragraph in the section on his site on Iraq. The “we started it so we have to finish it” mentality is understandable, even honorable, but how is he alone with this stance in winning over voters who oppose the war? The unabashed McCain view is that Operation Iraqi Freedom is simply a means toward the end of securing a U.S. (-friendly) stronghold in the Middle East. On its face, it would regain none of the political capital we have lost among Middle Eastern governments and people on the street over the past five years. Collectively, they want us out. The American people want us out. McCain has adopted the Bush position of intransigence in the face of these facts. Yet he is seen as different on the matter, the thinking maybe being that a potentially competent intransigent Commander in Chief will get us out faster (in only like twenty years) than an incompetent intransigent Commander in Chief (100 years or never), and at least that’s something…

While the other Republican candidates are constantly scrambling to prove their conservative mettle, McCain is keeping it lowkey. His conservative bonafides are well-established and don’t need to be underlined. Meantime, his moderate appeal draws the ire of conservative pundits. But the Limbaugh types have only helped in preaching against him to stoke his image as a moderate and to make him attractive to non-idealogues and undeclared undecideds.

All this seems either brilliant or a perfect-storm kind of confluence that has drawn enough votes to place him ahead of his two major vein-popping, flip-flopping opponents as well as the minister from Arkansas.

But who would McCain appoint to the Supreme Court? Who would he install as Attorney General? Will that person offer more than a whimper of protest when the Patriot Act is up for renewal? How much longer can the struggling U.S. economy finance “operations” in Iraq? Or long can we prop-up the Iraqi non-government? How much can we spend on rebuilding the Iraqi infrastructure we’ve destroyed? A few new schools, relative calm in Anbar, and a firestorm of underground resentment don’t quite cut it, Johnny.

Neither does McCain’s tight-rope act.