A run, not a win!
When the results from the crazy Texas caucuses are finalized tonight, Hillary Clinton will have likely gained a total of somewhere between four and nine delegates in the semi-Super Tuesday voting. That’s out of 3,000 some delegates already pledged. The newspaper headlines were screaming “Hillary Wins” and “Walk in the Park,” posting photos of her beaming amid confetti and balloons and asking her about her top choices for vice president, etc, etc. Puh-lease! That’s entertainment production, not journalism. That’s about selling papers and ad space by giving our television nation a damn good show.
In fact, since that’s the case, best to move to the sports pages for the real story. The basketball equivalent of what transpired Tuesday, for example, would be that the Hillary team scored between four and nine points more than the Obama team did during a five-minute stretch of the third quarter. Team Obama is still up by twenty points. At the break, the Obama coach says: “Sure, it would have been nice to bury the Hillaries with a string of three-pointers and to let the bench play the fourth quarter, but it didn’t go that way…” Right now, the bumping chests and pumping fists on the part of the Hillary players is just them trying to stay in the game.
Fact is, the candidates will pretty much split the popular vote or “pledged” delegates in the remaining official contests. Hillary will likely win Pennsylvania (an Ohio with mountains and weekending New Yorkers), but Obama will win Mississippi and Guam and North Carolina and West Virginia and maybe Kentucky. Given all that and barring any catastrophic YouTubes of him dancing shirtless with a turban on his dome and Osama bin Laden on his arm in a cave in Waziristan created and leaked by Clinton staffers (We did no such thing! But if we did, it was just to toughen him up for November!), Obama will go into July, the month before the convention, with “more votes from more states and with more delegates,” than Clinton, as his campaign puts it. Roughly, according to the New York Times, Obama is ahead by more than 100 delegates with roughly 600 official delegates yet to be decided. If the candidates split those evenly, Obama will need 35 percent of unpledged superdelegate votes and Clinton would need 65 percent. That’s a pretty dominating lead still for Obama.
The wild card in all of this is the question of Michigan and Florida. The votes in those two states do not count as of now toward the nomination. Clinton is betting she can get the party to let those states vote again. She would do, of course, because the demographics in Michigan and Florida likely favor her…. Staff writer Marissa Monroy put together a lowdown piece on the whizzbang contraption that is the Democratic Party delegate system, which we’ll be posting later today. Come back for more.
