The Connecticut Supreme Court’s 4-3 decision Friday to legalize same-sex marriage reinserts a topic that brought conservatives to the polls in 2004 back into the political spotlight. The news from the Connecticut court comes on the heels of new polls that show support for California’s ballot measure to oppose same-sex marriage is growing.

The presidential campaign has been focused almost exclusively on the economy over the past month. How will the marriage issue play out come November 4?

In Friday’s marriage ruling, the court overturned a lower court’s decision that civil unions provided the same benefits and rights as marriage. Connecticut joins California and Massachusetts as states that allow same-sex marriage.

But gay Californians may not be allowed to marry much longer. Proposition 8, which if passed would amend the California Constitution to only allow marriage between a man and a woman, is the highest profile ballot initiative in California this election season. The opposing sides have raised more than $41 million total, more than all previous marriage initiatives combined. Prop 8 proponents have approximately $10 million more to spend, and a new television advertising campaign appears to be working. In the most recent poll released by SurveyUSA, 47 percent of respondents supported the measure, while 42 percent opposed it. The previous poll, conducted before the advertising campaign began, showed 49 percent of those surveyed planned to oppose the measure, with 44 percent supporting it.

In the 2004 presidential election, 11 states had constitutional amendments banning same-sex marriage on the ballot, and all 11 measures passed. Analysts agreed these measures brought more social conservatives to the polls, and provided support for George W. Bush to be re-elected. In swing states like Ohio, the marriage amendment most likely delivered the state for Bush.

Of course, no one is arguing Proposition 8 is going to turn California red. In fact, some Prop 8 opponents are concerned Barack Obama will draw more black voters to the polls, who may be more likely to support the proposition, because of blacks’ traditionally more conservative family values. A September New York Times article quoted the co-campaign manager for Yes on 8, who said black voters were among the group’s strongest supporters. A University of Chicago lesbian and gay studies fellow disputed that notion in a Los Angeles Times op-ed, observing that in 2004, all states but one that had a notable number of black voters had fewer black voting for the marriage amendments than whites.

If Friday’s Connecticut court decision is unlikely to energize people to oppose the marriage amendment in California, it might have an effect in a battleground state with the amendment on the ballot — Florida. A Florida statute already bans same-sex marriage, but Proposition 2 would amend the state constitution. A measure needs 60 percent of the vote to amend the constitution, and the most recent survey, conducted in early September, shows voters support the amendment by a margin of 55 to 41 percent.

Recent presidential polls have Barack Obama leading John McCain in Florida by a margin of 52 to 44 percent. A re-energized conservative base, thanks to the Connecticut court’s decision and the prospect passing Proposition 2, could turn a state comfortably in Obama’s hand back to McCain.

With the same-sex marriage decision in Connecticut only hours old, it’s too soon to tell how social conservatives will respond, and whether the court’s action will become a rallying cry. There’s no question, however, that the candidates participating in a campaign mostly devoid of social issues like same-sex marriage and abortion will have to address them before election day.

Tags: california, connecticut, gay, marriage, massachusetts, proposition 8, same sex