As Barack Obama draws historic numbers of black voters to the polls, his presence on the ballot will likely help down-ticket Democratic candidates as well, especially in traditionally Republican states with large numbers of blacks. Recent research by CQ Politics shows at least 13 Senate and House seats currently held by Republicans are in jeopardy, primarily because the seats are all in districts (or states) with a black population higher than 10 percent.

The 8th district in North Carolina is just one example. Republican Robin Hayes won reelection in 2006 by 329 votes, and he faces a rematch with challenger Larry Kissell. Blacks make up 25 percent of Hayes’ district, and a Republican strategist is concerned about the congressman’s changes.

“I think the problem that he has is a combination of the African-American vote and new voters who have moved into North Carolina that don’t have the family ties and roots into that district,” the strategist told CQ Politics. “His race is very much one that I would not be surprised if he lost.”

The most recent polling for the 8th district, by SurveyUSA, has Kissell winning by at least six points, but the pollsters say the result is really going to depend on how many blacks turn out to vote. “If, buoyed by Barack Obama at the top of the ticket, blacks are 28 percent of voters, Kissell wins 50 percent to 40 percent today,” the poll concludes.

And while black voters are likely to make their presence felt on election day, black politicians are already proving they can run in majority-white districts and win. Tuesday’s New York Times story highlights the changing attitudes in voters, just in the last few years.

“In 2007, about 30 percent of the nation’s 622 black state legislators represented predominantly white districts, up from about 16 percent in 2001, according to data collected by the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, a research group based in Washington that has kept statistics on black elected officials for nearly 40 years.”

The results of a new Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll, released Friday,  show Obama has the same level of support among whites as John Kerry did in 2004. Conclusion: “If Obama matches Kerry’s numbers with white voters, he’s in, comfortably,” pollster Dick Bennett from the American Research Group told Bloomberg.

Clearly, we’re seeing the same support for a national black candidate as we have recently on a more local level (as documented in the Times).

The grand conclusion? Blacks as politicians are drawing more blacks to the voting booth, yet at the same time, these black politicians are relying less and less on members of their own race to get them elected. Barack Obama hasn’t succeeded just because he has black support. But black voters will be making a difference on Nov. 4 when they will likely determine whether a Democrat or Republican gets elected in more than a dozen House and Senate races. This election still might be all about race, just in unexpected ways.

Tags: black politicians, black voters, obama, robin hayes