illustration Jack Davis for Time mag.
Last Wednesday, Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, 47, a day after his party suffered its greatest consecutive Congressional defeats since Depression-era elections in 1930 and 1932, stated the obvious. “Nationally, the Republican Party is going to go through a Dr. Phil, self-analysis moment,” he told the AP.
But the Republican Party has been locked in a permanent Dr. Phil moment since the Iowa caucuses in January. The sniping between John McCain and Sarah Palin’s camp is just the latest (and maybe the greatest) showing of inner-party turmoil.
At a moment when changing demographics are favoring young and minority voters, the Republican brand is disintegrating—the once-solid coalition of fiscal conservatives, national security hawks, and social conservatives is unraveling. Young and minority voters may not have been the difference in 2008, but they were solidly behind the overwhelming Democratic turnout, and will be the dominant audience in foreseeable elections. But will they be receptive to whatever message the Republican power structure offers in the next four years?
The election of a 47-year-old half-black man who grew up outside the mainland U.S. might mark the end of the culture wars that has polarized every presidential election since the 60s. That was the GOP’s winning formula: separate the Democratic Party’s coastal elites from its working class base. Republicans employed wedge issues like abortion, affirmative action, and crime to split the Democratic Party in half and win. And it worked: Barack Obama is the first president to win 50 percent of the popular vote since Jimmy Carter’s 1976 post- Watergate victory.
There will be cries for the GOP to return to this divisive, but winning formula. But it didn’t work in 2008, and it wasn’t for lack of trying either.
The emerging Republican direction appears more conservative than pragmatic. The difference between compromise and obstruction will come down to how the House leadership shakes out—Minority leader John Boehner, 58, expects to win another term before inauguration day.
Republicans on the national level are still holding the bag for financial failure. The crisis exposed a rift among Republicans the likes of which we have not seen since the Gerald Ford-Ronald Regan contests in 1976. On the one side, the Young Turks like Rep. Eric Cantor, 45, who wish it was Reaganland all over again, are going to war against spending and taxes. On the other side, are the moderates, like Rep. Adam Putnam, 34, who favored the White House, Senate, and House-endorsed $750 billion rescue legislation.
The bailout legislation is like a scarlet letter for Republican representatives. Those who voted for it are resigning from leadership. Rep. Putnam resigned from the party’s No. 3 leadership position, but Rep. Cantor is likely to be promoted to the No. 2 spot despite engineering that legislation’s initial defeat. Rep. Roy Blunt, 58, formerly the No. 2, resigned Thursday saying—in so many words—that Republicans are losers.
Cantor, Blunt and Boehner have thrown down over leadership roles before, and we can expect a juicy power-grabbing sequel in the 111th Congress.
Across the Capitol, Senate Republicans are a lonely lot, losing six Senate seats, and maybe more in Georgia and Minnesota. And unlike their House counterparts, senators may be more willing to deal with Democrats. For former red state Republican senators like Maine’s Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe and Iowa’s Chuck Grassley, the new and bluer 2008 electoral map is a brave new world. Republican senators are unlikely to rally behind conservative initiatives rebuking President Obama’s policies, fearing that they will be out of touch with the folks back home.
The Republican Party will likely lurch further right before it comprises or disintegrates, with the House leading the way on the national level. The American Spectator endorsed the fiscal conservatives and defense hawk old guard. Blogger Michelle Malkin demanded Republicans obstruct Democrats no matter the cost. Lou Dobbs won’t shut up about immigration, and McCainiacs rallied against the news media. At the grassroots level things are even worse—activists are turning clocks back to (surprise!) 1980 and siding with Palin. But what about governors not named Sarah? Why isn’t anybody talking about them?
While the national Party is figuring out what do to, governors are quietly experimenting with new Republican mantras. Largely independent from the national head-scratching, governors understand representative government boils down to delivering goods and services.
“‘The other side is worse’ is not a very inspiring bumper sticker,“ said Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, 37. “We’ve got…to apply our principles to the issues that affect people’s lives.” Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush—a moderate (yes, really)—says the 2010 elections will provide a debut for a “conservative agenda [that] can be shown at the state level regarding education, health care and environmental policy.
“We can’t be anti-Hispanic, anti-young person, anti-many things and be surprised when we don’t win elections,” Gov. Bush, 55, said.
But Gov. Bush and Gov. Jindal’s messages are in stark contrast to the House and the grassroots movements’ direction.
Both Govs. Bush and Jindal are in the one region where Republican enthusiasm was high. Turnout was strongest in a crescent that swept from Louisiana to South Carolina. If Republicans are going to get any new ideas, they should start looking, like they have since Barry Goldwater, in the South.
“The South is beginning to look less like the firm foundation of a national Party than the embattled redoubt of a regional one,” middle-America soothsayer George Will wrote.
When the next Congress convenes, 43% percent of the likely 44 Republican senators will be from the South (including Oklahoma and Kentucky).
Essentially the party of Lincoln is over. The party of Nixon’s culture wars will only succeed if the Obama administration fails, and the party of Reagan adheres to its ultra conservative roots despite its 30-year dominance in government.
Yes, even a few days after D-Day there is movement for 2010 and beyond. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, 61, has re-activated his PAC, there are more Sarah Palin secrets coming down the pike, and Gov. Jindal is the keynote speaker at a major league conservative Christian fundraising ordeal on Nov. 22 in Iowa. Gotta love caucuses.