Insider Advantage pollster Matt Towery suggests that, in analyzing likely voting trends, not enough focus has been placed on “the new (southern) swing states.” As a longtime professional pollster, Towery thinks voting results in southern states with large African-American populations and increasing numbers of young first-time registered voters could amount to a sea change in the country’s electoral map.

“There’s a new dynamic out there, ” says Towery. “Georgia, for example, has one of the highest young voter-age population groups in the nation– individuals who are age 18-29. That gives Obama a footing in Georgia that he doesn’t have in Florida, for instance… Also, almost 30 percent of the vote in Georgia is African America, one of the highest percentages in the nation….

“If Obama’s able to carry only 22 percent of the white vote… I’ve been watching it very carefully and chronicling it as well and I’ll have a real story to tell by the end of this campaign.”

(Full disclosure: Matt Towery is a client of mine. –G.D.)

This post originally appeared at Off the Bus.em>

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